Friday, November 16, 2007

All Fumblers Are Not Created Equal - Part One


Ladell wishes he had this problem

The Curly R is pleased to present a two part series examining the strategic aspects of and historical perspective on Ladell Betts' propensity for putting the football on the ground.

Part 1: Working Hard, Dropping the Ball
Part 2: Earnest Byner, the Original Fumbler

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I was really happy with Ladell Betts last season, happy that he picked up the load and ran with it to the tune of 1154 rushing and 445 receiving yards after Clinton Portis dislocated his shoulder in the preseason and then broke his hand.

Except for the fumbling. Ladell had six fumbles overall last season and five in the last eight games:

Game 9 loss at Philadelphia, second quarter fumble out of bounds possession retained.

Game 10 loss at Tampa Bay, fourth quarter, Redskins had just lost lead, Betts fumble recovered by Buccaneers who scored and never trailed again.

Game 14 win at New Orleans, fourth quarter fumble recovered by Antwaan Randle El possession retained.

Game 15 loss at St. Louis, fourth quarter, Redskins had just re-tied the game and with the help of a well timed play challenge the Redskins had the ball with 2:20 left on their 37 and a chance to go down and close out the game. On the second play of the drive Ladell fumbles the Rams recover and move down for a final shot. The Redskins lost in overtime.

Game 16 loss vs. New York Giants, first quarter fumble returned 67 yards by the Giants to set up the game's first score.


Biggie at Post Game Heroes did a numbers thing with Ladell and yes he fumbles way more than his established colleagues. 56.8 touches per fumble, or he fumbles 1.76% of the time, combined rushing and receiving touches. If a feature tailback's target is 25 to 30 carries per game that's one fumble every other game, an unacceptable number.

Look at it in the context of this season. Ladell is not the feature back he's the number two guy. He has 57 carries and 9 catches, that's 66 touches until his first fumble, within the order of magnitude, looks like the stat holds up.

These numbers tend to validate Biggie's assessment that the Redskins should keep Ladell out of the fourth quarter of games still in question, the risk of him dropping the ball and squandering a possession is too great.


All Fumblers Are Not Created Equal concludes tonight with Part 2 Earnest Byner, the Original Fumbler.



Earnest Byner after fumbling in the 1987 AFC Championship Game: AP photo from here.

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