Wrong; Wrong; Maybe

Ever been beat down cowboy style?

This started as a comment on Hogs Haven but got too long-winded and I have my own blog so what the hell.

Skin Patrol reports about ESPN via ExtremeSkins that three former players, Joe Theismann, Merril Hoge and Eric Allen, have made some early predictions for their 'surprise' teams. I think they are crazy. Indulge me.

1. Merril Hoge, an eight year NFL veteran from 1987 to 1994, has the San Francisco 49ers as his surprise pick for the 2007 season. He says Frank Gore will get more big yards and Alex Smith will continue to improve, and that the 49ers acquired some talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Surprise Merril you're wrong and here's why:

They'll be not as good because the mind behind that offense, Norval Turner, is no longer the offensive coordinator, having shipped off to be the head coach of the San Diego Chargers.

Although the 49ers have been active in free agency, the problem they'll have in 2007 is getting the thing together. Norval does outstanding work when the only thing he has to deal with is the offense. He's relaxed, can focus on the game plan and let the position coaches handle the personalities.

After getting the boot from the Redskins in 2000, Norval spent 2001 as the offensive coordinator for Mike Riley in San Diego. That was LaDainian Tomlinson's rookie year. LaDainian ran for 1200 yards, the Chargers had a balanced attack and were in the top half of the league in points, passing yards and rushing yards.

After Mike was not retained, Norval did not wait around to see what happened so he went to work for his old Dallas co-coordinator Dave Wannstedt as Miami's offensive coordintor. In 2002 the Dolphins were in the top half of the league in points and passing yards and led the league as a team in rushing yards as Ricky Williams led the league individually.

In 2003 the Dolphins won 10 games but took a step back offensively even as Ricky Williams led the league in attempts (meaning even as ground production slowed, Norval stuck with the run game as the major component of the offense).

In 2006 as the offensive coordinator of the 49ers, Norval led his offense to the number six position in rushing yards on the back of second year player Frank Gore.

When the Cowboys and Chargers came calling, the 49ers did their best to keep Norval, offering him a pile of money that was obviously not enough inducement to stay. Norval's departure forced head coach Mike Nolan, a defensive specialist (he was Norval's second defensive coordinator in Washington) to elevate quarterbacks coach Jeff Hostetler Jim Hostler to offensive coordinator. Jim will be in his third year with the 49ers and has been with four NFL teams in seven seasons as a pro coach and has never been a coordinator. He predates Norval in San Francisco and is not a Norval's Way guy by heritage. How much of Norval's Way rubbed off on Jim remains to be seen.

On the defensive side, former San Diego linebackers coach Greg Manusky was hired to replace the fired Billy Davis as defensive coordinator. Greg has never been a coordinator.

Conclusion: The players will have improved from another year of being together and from decent free agency moves, but the guys that call the shots for the main units have never done this before, other teams will exploit this and so I expect the 49ers will not be much better record-wise in 2007.


2. Eric Allen, a 14-year NFL player from 1988 to 2001 has the San Diego Chargers as his surprise team for 2007, arguing that the strawman 'lot of people' have written them off for next season already due to coaching upheaval. Marty Schottenheimer was fired after the Chargers lost in the playoffs, owner Dean Spanos saying that Marty and GM AJ Smith were barely on speaking terms (I still think they fired the wrong guy, but then I'm a Marty Schottenhomer), the coaches scattered like roaches in kitchen light (Wade Phillips to Dallas, Cam Cameron to Miami, Greg Manusky to San Francisco and Rod Chudzinski to Cleveland) and Norval Turner was brought in to be the head coach after not getting the nod in Dallas. Still with me on this?

Surprise Eric you're wrong and here's why:

They will not be as good because they were already 14 and fereaking 2 and they tampered with that not only by bringing in a new coaching staff, but a head coach that can't manage people, does not inspire players and most importantly who loses his offensive edge when saddled with the minutiae of being in charge.

Despite professed similarities between Cam Cameron's offensive system under Marty and Norval's own (Cam learned Norval's system as Norval's quarterbacks coach in Washington and Norval actually brought the system to San Diego in 2001 and Cam was hired to carry it on for the Chargers and so now Norval is replacing the system that was installed to approximate the system he installed before the system that he installed was replaced with a look-alike system that he is now replacing, how's that for an infinite regression), how did that work out for two other Don Coryell descendents with similarities in their systems, one Joe Gibbs and one Al Saunders?*

So in addition to the possibly false promise of system continuity, Norval also has a head coaching problem. That being, he's not great. We all know about his time with the Redskins, so we won't belabor it (op. cit.) except to say by the end the players were going through the motions and there was no cohesion, so let's look at Oakland. Al Davis hired Norval to coach the Raiders before the 2004 season. After logging the number two scoring offense in 2002 (and losing the Super Bowl), 2003 saw a collapse (Rick Mirer was exhumed and actually threw 220 passes in nine games for the Raiders after former Redskin Rich Gannon hurt his shoulder) to the bottom of the league. Bill Callahan was fired after two seasons.

Unfortunately for Norval the team did not progress in any meaningful way. 2004 found the Raiders in the bottom half in scoring, passing yards and rushing yards (the Raiders were actually the worst rushing team in the league in 2004, with the fewest attempts and fewest yards). Rich Gannon got hurt again, a serious neck injury resulting from a helmet-to-helmet by Tampa Bay's Derrick Brooks and gave way to Kerry Collins. Charlie Garner gave way to Amos Zereoue and nothing worked. Rich retired after the season.

2005 was not much better, and was worse in a way because even though 2004 had been derailed by Rich's injury and settled the quarterback situation on Kerry, the team just made no headway. Kerry remained the starter and Amos Zereoue gave way to Lamont Jordan, but the team remained in the bottom half in scoring, passing yards and rushing yards. Whatever mad genius Norval brought from Miami was gone. The team seemed to have no cohesion, Jerry Porter and Randy Moss already were not getting along and what the Raiders needed was a strong sideline personality and not a chin-scratcher. Norval was fired after compiling a 9-23 record in his two Raider seasons.

Conclusion: The San Diego Chargers may be a stable roster of players coming off an excellent 2006 season, but a team can take up to a full season to adapt to a new coach and new system no matter how 'similar' it may be to the old one. Complicating this problem is the team's selection of a head coach that is not a people person and whose teams seem merely to tread water. They tossed out a guy that wins 61% of his games for a guy that is 58-82-1. The only surprise about next season's Chargers will be to what degree do they underachieve. And I agree with Skin Patrol; it's not exactly risking your place in the establishment to predict a decent 2007 for the Chargers.


3. Joe Theismann, a 12-year NFL veteran from 1974 to 1985, all with the Redskins, thinks Washington has found its quarterback in Jason Campbell and they are his pick for surprise team in 2007.

I don't know if you're right Joe but if you aren't here's the reason:


This is Joe Theismann's home-district time of the year. During the offseason Joe gets to be a shameless Redskins homer, postulating on how good they could be and how personally meaningful it was for him to play on a good team that featured him personally (an infinite loop of self-aggrandizement). He does not have the national platform of ESPN football to live up to in the offseason and so in his national and local media puts he wuvs the Redskins. Contrast this with his blatant efforts to appear non-homery during the season whenever forced to comment on the Redskins.

In the offseason we get to remember the Joe Theismann who brought gutty football to Washington. That's why we get pissed but never turn our back on Joe because even as he bashes the new Joe Gibbs for overconservatism we never really believe he really means it, kind of like how Dick Cheney suffers vile anti-gay rhetoric from his political party during the day only to go home and hug his gay pregnant daughter, have a Scotch with his gay daughter-in-law and be really psyched about another grandchild.

Regarding the quarterback situation, Joe Gibbs' second go round in Washington has been uneven. Upon arrival Joe affirmed Patrick Ramsey's position as the starter then went out and signed Mark Brunell to a seven year, 43 million dollar contract that was totally uncalled for. Then as if by magic Mark wins the starting job away from Patrick then loses it to thunderous boos nine games later. Patrick goes 3-4 to end 2004 and is the 'named' starter for 2005 and gets all of one series in the opener before getting the Shuler Treatment and Mark is back in the saddle. The cycle started again in 2006 with Mark getting benched after nine games to raucous boos whereupon we finally see Jason Campbell who goes 2-5 to end 2006 and is the 'named' starter for 2007. History suggests Jason may get between one series and one half in the 2007 opener before we see the Return of the Son of Mark Brunell Part III: From Hell.

Conclusion: no coaching changes and the only major player change so far in the offense is the loss of a starting offensive lineman who is to be replaced by a former backup means the real hope of Redskins fans re: the offense is that they simply 'do better.' Joe Theismann also bleats out the 49ers as his safety pick for 'surprise,' so see also Merril Hoge above.

The Curly R has covered Norval in some detail here. I have placed a reminder in my Google calendar for one year from now to evaluate how close I was in critiquing these predictions.



* Ok so I see here that Ernie Zampese, Norval's mentor, did a pretty good job replacing his protege in Dallas after Norval left to coach the Redskins: 40-24 over four seasons with a Super Bowl in there, but that lil factoid about a mentor replacing his protege and succeeding does not fit with the high tone nor narrative certainty of this piece and so we will simply note it here in the agate type where it is not officially a part of the piece.

Image of Office Space printer beatdown (PF load letter!) via Philadelphia Weekly here.

Norval Turner: uncredited AP photo

Joe Gibbs: uncredited AP photo from here and given the logo on his jacket, this photo would be from the 1982 season